The Hindu Business Line : Reviving monsoon brings North-West too under its footprint

The biggest beneficiary from the latest monsoon pulse will be the moisture-stressed northwest, though one couldn't figure out how this would help crops in the region, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

It is hoped that the rainfall deficits would be made up in due course, given the low `normals' specific to the region (compared to the northeast, for instance), he told Business Line on Thursday.

Throwback to July

"We are faced with a throwback to July when the system was firing on all cylinders across the North and the northwest. The seasonal trough had dropped considerably south to its normal position in tandem with the pulsating rain belt. "It is slowly clawing its way back home. At one time, the trough was straddling the central parts of the country. Monsoon easterlies are now in full flight, and models suggest that they would hold good till at least Wednesday next (September 21)," Dr Gupta said.

In its weather update, the NCMRWF said that during the last 24 hours, heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred over Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Vidarbha. Scattered light to moderate rainfall was reported from elsewhere outside the northeastern States, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and interior Karnataka.

Wednesday's depression over northeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary with its centre about 250 km west-southwest of Veraval. The system is likely to move slowly in a west-northwesterly direction.

The well-marked low pressure area over East Madhya Pradesh and the neighbourhood lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh on Thursday. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extended up to mid-tropospheric levels. This system is also likely to move in a northwesterly direction.

There is another well-marked `low' over northwest Madhya Pradesh. It is poised to interact with the prevailing western disturbance over northwest India and cause fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy rains over many parts of the northwest and central India during the next three days.

Fresh `low'

The fourth active system is likely to form over central Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours. This will mark the delayed arrival of the migrating remnant from a China Sea system that was forecast to settle into position two days ago.

Dr Gupta said this system is likely to intensify into a depression by Saturday and move in a west-northwesterly direction after making a landfall. A productive session is likely with widespread rains with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast for Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh for three days from Saturday.

In the region-wise forecast, the NCMRWF said fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely in the East and the northeast. Orissa and West Bengal may witness heightened activity subsequent to the formation of the fresh `low.'

Entire Central India — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha — are expected to receive fairly widespread rains during the next two days. Madhya Pradesh is likely to receive heavy to very heavy rains during this period.

In the South, coastal Karnataka, coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall. In the West, the Konkan region, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat and East Rajasthan are likely to experience fairly widespread rains during the next 2-3 days. The Konkan region, Goa and Gujarat are likely to receive isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall during this period.

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