The Hindu Business Line : Weekly rainfall figures show decline

ALL India weekly rainfall has declined considerably from 16 per cent above normal last week (August 1-7) to 25 per cent below normal during the latest (Aug 8-14) for which statistics are available, says the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

This is being attributed to the week-long break phase the monsoon ran itself into from August 7, a replay of which has now been indicated to take place from Sunday next (August 21).

An indifferent revival phase in between, as is now the case, is small consolation for vast tracts of cropped lands in north peninsular, central and northwest India, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF.

It is also worth recalling the fact that the all-India rainfall for the period June1-August 10 has gone down from +5 per cent last week to +2 per cent during this week. Much of the damage has been caused by the early-August break phase.

But more such surprises are in store with the less-than-par monsoon revival phase signing off to merely ring in another weak phase next week.

The trend in rainfall distribution is evident from some statistics provided by the NCMRWF. Actual rainfall for the country as a whole (June 1-Aug 10) is 558.1 mm against a normal of 548.5 mm (+2 per cent).

Zone-wise break-up revealed that rainfall surpluses were observed only in Central India (+19 per cent) and the South Peninsula (+10 per cent). Northwest India (-3 per cent) and Northeast India (-25 per cent) ran up rainfall deficits during the period.

Overall, subdivision-wise comparison revealed a different picture. Rainfall was excess or normal in as many as 30 sub-divisions and deficient only in the rest six. But these statistics could get slightly rearranged as the season runs through the current week and progresses into the next.

Meanwhile, Tuesday's upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and adjoining Chhattisgarh has shifted place to Jharkhand and adjoining southeast Uttar Pradesh.

The system is likely to move slowly in a northwesterly direction, triggering fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over north Madhya Pradesh and south Uttar Pradesh during next 2-3 days.

The axis of monsoon passed through Ferozepur, Delhi, Kanpur, Allahabad, Digha and thence southwards into the central Bay of Bengal.

Due to the interaction of existing western disturbance with the monsoon system in the form of the upper air cyclonic circulation, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely for the next two days over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and West Uttar Pradesh.

The NCMRWF has officially incorporated in its Wednesday bulletin the warning about monsoon running likely into another weak phase beginning from Sunday (August 21).

This is expected to lead to enhanced rainfall activity over the Northeastern States and sub-Himalayan West Bengal but subdued rainfall over the remaining parts of the country.

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