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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , July 10

AN approaching western disturbance and a prevailing monsoon system are seen partnering in an encore performance, bringing a fresh spell of rain to the northwest region from Tuesday onwards.

But meteorologists are keeping a close watch if the interaction of the systems could throw up the inevitable - a break monsoon - this time round. It may be recalled that the existing monsoon system was so strong last week it could stand up to the invading westerlies, manage to detach itself and maintain identity right up till the end of its tenure overland. This had averted a possible break monsoon situation.

Weaker circulation: But the prevailing monsoon system in the form an upper air cyclonic circulation lying over Jharkhand and adjoining Orissa is not exactly roaring with aggression and is seen tracking a northwesterly direction during the next 3-4 days, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Normally, a properly behaving monsoon system moves west-northwest in alignment with the monsoon trough. Given its northerly bias, the current system is likely to move the monsoon trough out of its moorings and prop up its western tip to the north. This could subsequently lead to the monsoon trough being towed to the foothills of the Himalayas, leading to the first `break monsoon' of the season.

But, according to Dr Gupta, a final word on the emerging scenario could be said only by Monday. There is enough evidence supporting the finding that compared to August, break monsoon days are becoming increasingly prominent in the month of July. By a strange coincidence, some weather models also show a weakening of the westerlies over the Arabian Sea by the weekend.

On Sunday, a cloud band was seen advancing across the southwest coast that is expected to bring rain to Kerala and coastal Karnataka. But no models show a `monsoon pulse' being triggered that could rejuvenate the monsoon countrywide.

The axis of the monsoon trough at sea level passed through Ganganagar, Hissar, Kanpur, Daltonganj, Cuttack and thence southeastwards to the east central Bay of Bengal.

Wet spell for northwest: The NCMRWF model said that on Sunday, a western disturbance in the form of an upper air cyclonic circulation lay over central Pakistan and adjoining northwest Rajasthan. This is scheduled to move further eastward into the mainland, only to be accosted by the northwestward moving monsoon system.

The interaction is expected to lead to widespread rains over many parts of the northwest India, especially Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and East Rajasthan over four days from Monday. There could be isolated heavy to very heavy rains over Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh Tuesday onwards.

Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Karnataka, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and isolated to scattered over rest of the areas of the region during next 2-3 days. Scattered to fairly wide spread rains are expected over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Gujarat and west Rajasthan may receive scattered rains during this period. Rainfall activity (fairly widespread) over east Rajasthan is likely to enhance from Tuesday.

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