Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Tuesday, Apr 12, 2005
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Tuesday, Apr 12, 2005 |
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Agri-Biz & Commodities
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Climate & Weather Monsoon may hit shores on time — Excess rainfall likely in June: CSIR body Our Bureaus
Chennai/Thiruvananthapuram, April 11 EVEN as the country has been witnessing good pre-monsoon showers, indications are that the monsoon may set in Kerala on time this year. More cheerful news is the projection that June, when sowing for the kharif crops gains momentum, could witness excess rainfall during all the four weeks. According to the CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, onset of monsoon, in terms of sustained large-scale significant rainfall, is likely to occur around May 26. The centre has also projected floods in the eastern and north-eastern parts of the country during June. The centre has been making projections on monsoon since 2003 and last year, it was on target when it forecast that the central parts of the country would witness 10 per cent deficient rainfall. It will come out with the second onset forecast on May 5 besides the first weekly forecast for the June-September period. Meanwhile, the Agriculture Ministry has said there was 25 per cent excess pre-monsoon rainfall last month. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country, 23 received excess rainfall, 10 received scanty/deficient rainfall and three sub-divisions received no rainfall. Rainfall was higher in the north-eastern parts, an excess of 72 per cent against the normal 100.3 mm. According to Agriculture Ministry sources, the good pre-monsoon showers augured well as they would help improve the soil moisture and thus help kharif sowing. "It is too early to comment on kharif sowing. But the good pre-monsoon will definitely help soil moisture." South India, in particular, has received good pre-monsoon showers and in some parts this has helped farmers go in for large-scale sugarcane planting. Oilseeds such as sunflower and groundnut are also likely to gain as a result. On the other hand, reports from the central parts of the country said that there was no rainfall in the region. "Normally, we don't get any rainfall during this period," said farm sources in the region. During kharif, soyabean, jowar and gram are grown in the region. On the other hand, rainfall last month in North India in the wheat-growing regions is expected to help the crop quality. "The rainfall last month led to fall in maximum and minimum temperatures, which are very conducive for the wheat crop," Agriculture Ministry sources said. Production of other rabi crops such as mustard was also good, they said, adding that hailstorm and strong winds had affected mustard/rapeseed crop over a small area in Rajasthan. This year (July 2004-June 2005), foodgrain production is estimated to be lower at 210.44 million tonnes against 213.46 million tonnes last year. The projection is based on hopes of a record 106.36 million tonnes rabi crop against 96.58 million tonnes last year. Last year, kharif was at a record of 116.88 million tonnes, thanks to good monsoon.
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