The Hindu Business Line : India in an emerging world order

As the US, Russia and China redefine their equations with each other and with their neighbours, it is in India's interest to develop a common diplomatic approach with China and Russia on such issues as energy and Indian Ocean sea-lane security as well as the issue of China's arms sales to Pakistan. On another level, India should explore ways to benefit from American technology in areas like defence, space and nuclear power, says G. Parthasarathy.

The visit of the US Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice, has led to expectations that there will be more cooperation between India and the US in nuclear energy and space and in the sale of Defence equipment. — V. Sudershan

AN INFLUENTIAL American academic who was recently in New Delhi candidly spelt out American global priorities in the coming years. While acknowledging that the "War on Terrorism" had acquired new dimensions that would take considerable time to confront, he averred that continuing "primacy" in world affairs was the predominant aim of American policy. This "primacy' was to be achieved by increasing investments to maintain global military "dominance" by the US and by preserving its economic power.

Politically, the US would seek to engage centres of influence, like its NATO and EU Allies, Japan, Russia, China and India. While there is little doubt that the US can perpetuate its global military "dominance," there are doubts about whether it can retain its global economic clout, to the exclusion of other players. It is also doubtful if the US will be able to fashion a world order in which it achieves consensus with other major players, even as it strives to retain global "primacy".

The present global order is going to largely revolve around the directions that American policies take in the quest for global "primacy". After attempting to engage the US and secure American recognition and respect for its interests in the erstwhile Soviet Republics, the Russian President, Mr Vladimir Putin, appears to have concluded that there is a conscious US effort to contain and undermine Russian influence in its "near neighbourhood", especially in the light of the recent developments in Georgia and Ukraine.

Japan has won "unambiguous" American support for its candidature for Permanent Membership of the Security Council after it joined the US on the Taiwan issue. China, in turn, has enacted legislation threatening to invade Taiwan if it declares independence. With its rapidly expanding defence expenditure and industrial strength, China is now perceived by the Americans as a long-term challenge and threat.

There are, however, disagreements within the US on how the emergence of China as a global and competing power in the Asia-Pacific can be addressed. While President Bush sought to assure his European Allies about his desire to eschew unilateral American actions as in Iraq, the trans-Atlantic Alliance could receive a serious jolt if the Europeans go ahead with their intention to sell arms to China. The Americans will inevitably respond with technology sanctions if European powers proceed on this path, as seems likely now.

What we are, therefore, seeing is the emergence of a world order in which there will be areas of cooperation, as well as competition and rivalry between major power centres in the world. New Delhi should see the recent developments, including the visits of the US Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice, and the former Japanese Primer Minister, Mr Yoshiro Mori, and the forthcoming visit of Chinese Prime Minister, Mr Wen Jiabao, in the light of these developments.

While the focus of attention of Ms Rice's visit was on her concerns about the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, she did make some significant comments in Delhi and Islamabad. She stated in Islamabad that the US was opposed to violence and terrorism in J&K. She also recognised that the road to an "eventual resolution" in J&K would take time because of "deep divisions" in the positions of India and Pakistan.

The US is now cooperating with India more closely than ever before on developments in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Ms Rice indicated that the US was willing to live with the reality of India being a nuclear power and offered to assist India in meeting its energy needs.

There is now reason for some optimism on this score. Having agreed to provide over $5 billion in Exim Bank credits and loan guarantees for supplying nuclear power reactors to China, the US cannot ignore India's energy needs, including in the area of nuclear power.

There is also recognition in Washington that given the American quest for a "strategic balance" in Asia, India's emergence as a growing economic power with military potential should be encouraged, including with measures such as the provision of missile defence systems, F16 fighter aircraft and other sophisticated military equipment. Just before Ms Condoleezza Rice reached Beijing, Pakistan carried out a test of its Chinese-supplied Shaheen II missile that has a range of 2,000 kilometres and can target cities like Bangalore and Chennai with nuclear warheads.

It is imperative for Dr Manmohan Singh to take up our concerns about Chinese assistance to Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile programmes with the Prime Minister, Mr Wen Jaiabao. Our political leaders have in the past shown an unnecessary reluctance to take up such issues with their Chinese counterparts.

The Chinese are supreme realists and respect others only when they show the ability to acquire and wield power. China's respect for India will inevitably increase when we accelerate economic growth, step up Defence modernisation and deploy Agni III missiles.

We should also make it clear that there can be no question of India yielding to the new and fanciful Chinese border claim of the monastery town of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh being a part of China.

Dr Manmohan Singh had spoken of an Asian Economic Community during the last Asean Summit. Mr Wen Jiabao should be asked if China supports this proposal. China has been lukewarm towards our growing engagement with East and South East Asia. Both India and the US share a common interest in stability in the Persian Gulf and security of the Indian Ocean sea-lanes. But there are wide differences on issues like relations with Iran.

It would be in our interest to develop a common diplomatic approach to such issues with powers like China and Russia. Neither India nor China should be deterred from benefiting from the utilisation of the gas and oil resources of Iran merely because of concerns of possible American sanctions under the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act of 1996. The Wen Jiabao visit should be utilised to see that competition for energy resources does not unnecessarily strain Sino-Indian relations.

There is much that India can learn from the dynamic manner in which China has proceeded to acquire equity stakes in oil, gas and coal exploration in countries ranging from Australia and Canada to Iran and Sudan. The visit of Ms Condoleezza Rice has led to expectations in India that the Bush Administration will be more forthcoming on issues of high-technology transfers, cooperation in nuclear energy and space and finally on sale and co-production of defence equipment.

The US has not been a reliable partner in the past, either on defence sales or nuclear energy. But there are indications that the US is now showing a growing recognition of India's importance in developing a viable and stable balance of power in Asia.

We should, therefore, explore ways to benefit from American technology in areas like defence, space and nuclear power. We could look at the possibility of acquiring missile defence systems from the US to protect our population centres because of the unrestrained transfers of missiles and nuclear weapons knowhow from China to Pakistan.

We could also undertake acquisitions of major weapons systems once the US removes the legislative and other impediments we now face in acquiring nuclear power plants. The G8 group of nations cannot expect us to join global efforts for dealing with climate change at a time when we are denied alternative, non-polluting sources of energy.

The world will, however, take more serious notice of us after our nuclear scientists establish that we can build our own 500 MW Uranium 233-based fast-breeder reactors. National self-reliance in such areas inevitably promotes international respect for India.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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