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Wednesday, Aug 11, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS were successful on Tuesday to the extent of neutralising the earlier bearish sentiment. Further bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bearish.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour of Tuesday's trading, the August contract lost around 6 points. Later on, bulls took charge of the day's proceedings. The August contract moved within a band of 18 points registering an intra-day high of 1653.65. It closed with a marginal gain of three points with respect to its previous close.

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Bull domination during the day led to the termination of the downtrend in the August contract. The short trade exited with a loss of 24 points. Bullish trigger level for the August contract has been moved closer. Bull move on Wednesday has the potential to initiate the uptrend in the August contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. State Bank moved to the fourth position followed by Satyam, Wipro and ONGC. Trading activity in M&M was quite hectic on Tuesday with more than 7,800 trades. The exit level for the short position in Infosys is placed at 1547.05.

Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list. On the other hand, the lone downtrend counter - ONGC is likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have an opportunity in six counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bullish trigger for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Satyam.

Cash segment: The most active counters list in this segment remains unchanged. The ranking of the list underwent some changes. SAIL moved to the third position followed by Tata Motors and State Bank.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in M&M, State Bank and Tata Steel. On the contrary, the downtrend in Infosys and ONGC are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as seven counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. The best bet for Wednesday's trading is likely to be the buying in Satyam. This counter is in the sideways mode and has closed at 346.55. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to initiate the uptrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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