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Wednesday, Jul 21, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bull domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bearish.

Nifty futures recommendation: July contract opened around its previous close and steadily lost its ground during the day's trading. It moved within a band of 20 points registering an intra-day low of 1541.40. It closed with a loss of 8 points with respect to Monday's close.

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Bears were successful in terminating the uptrend in the July contract. The long trade exited with a nominal profit of 9 points. Bearish trigger level for the July contract has been moved closer to its current level. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in the July contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Except for the uptrend in Tata Steel, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

Selling in Tata Motors is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remain unchanged. Bears were successful in initiating the downtrend in the recommended counter Tata Motors.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ONGC, Punjab Bank and Tata Steel. On the other hand, the downtrend in Maruti is likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in six counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Satyam.

Selling in State Bank is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Sell level for this counter is placed within Rs 2 from its closing value. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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