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Tuesday, May 18, 2004

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There's something about Monday

Nath Balakrishnan

THERE is something about Monday that gives the markets the jitters: even as the BSE Sensex tanked by a staggering 564 points (or 11 per cent) in what would turn out to be the second biggest fall in its history, the coincidence with similar such crashes in global markets is inescapable.

Precipitous single-day falls on the Dow in 1929, 1987 and 1997 all occurred on a Monday, too.

When the Dow tanked in October 1987 and October 1997 by shedding 508 points and 550 points respectively, on both occasions the magnitude of intra-day movement was nowhere as was seen in the Sensex on Monday, when the swing was about 800 points (on the Dow, in both instances, the intra-day swing was under 550 points).

In more recent times, the Sensex witnessed a crash when the tech bubble came apart in the early part of 2000. The effect: the index shed close to 300 points on February 29, 2000 and then lost a whopping 363 points on April 4, 2000. The fall in the Sensex on Monday is just six points shy of what was seen on April 28, 1992 when the news of the securities scam involving Harshad Mehta broke out. Till date, this fall would rank as the highest in terms of percentage as well (about 13 per cent).

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There's something about Monday
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