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Roop Lal Sharma

Rattled by its failure to regain power in April 1999 after the fall by one vote of the Vajpayee Government, the Congress(I) is keen to tie up all loose ends well ahead of time, leaving nothing to chance.

AFTER months of in house debate, the tie-up lobby won the day at the brain-storming session of the Congress(I) at Shimla, countermanding its five-year-old Panchmarhi resolution.

Rattled by its failure to regain power in April 1999 after the fall by one vote of the Vajpayee Government, the Congress(I) is keen to tie up all loose ends well, ahead of time, leaving nothing to chance.

The 14-point "Shimla Sankalap", while calling for a joint front of all secular forces against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), makes it clear that any future coalition or alliance will have to be headed by the Congress(I) president, Mrs Sonia Gandhi. The Sankalap spelt out the party's terms for a coalition and made it clear that there would be no compromise on the leadership issue and that the fight against the NDA would be led by none else but by Mrs Sonia Gandhi.

This assertion had become necessary in the light of 1999 experience when Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samata Party and some other groups had refused to accept the 1eadership of Mrs Sonia Gandhi because of her foreign origin.

The same parties are now clamouring for a broad alliance to take on the NDA and it is imperative to spell out the terms on this issue.

Critics may dub the rejection of the Panchmarhi declaration an acknowledgement of the fact by the party that it was incapable of unseating the NDA Government on its own, but in the current political milieu, when communal forces are gaining ascendancy, the decision appears pragmatic. It is based on a realistic appraisal of the situation and limitations of the party vis-à-vis the ground realities.

By adhering to the Panchmarhi declaration, the Congress(I) had virtually pushed the smaller parties into the BJP fold,as there was no viable alternative. But its latest decision to open its door to alliances is likely to bring about changes in political equations, with some NDA allies moving towards the Congress-led alliance.

A statement by the DMK supremo, Dr M. Karunanidhi, is the first indication in this regard. Even the CPI(M), which is striving to form a third front, has said that it would consider extending support to the Congress though it would not be part of any alliance or front. Nonetheless, the Congress, on its part, has pitched the secular ball.

It will be naive to think that the Sankalap is all pros and no cons. First, the decision to project Mrs Sonia Gandhi as leader of any alliance, could scare away some of the potential allies which genuinely believe in secularism but have reservations about Mrs Sonia Gandhi being projected as Prime Minister because of her foreign origins. Second, and more important, Mrs Sonia Gandhi's projection as the prime ministerial candidate would pitch her directly against Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who enjoys more popularity and acceptability as a leader. He has proved his mettle by successfully leading the alliance for five years whereas the Congress(I) has no experience of coalition ruling. Unlike Mr Vajpayee, she does not have any administrative experience. Projection of Mrs Sonia Gandhi as the PM will provide a handle to the BJP to make it "an Atal versus Italy" battle.

But Congress strategists dismiss all apprehension in this regard as baseless. They point out that the issue of foreign origin existed only in media or a miniscule minority of the urban population. The potential allies of the Congress(I) have already made their position clear. As for the Atal-Sonia face-off, they point out that except for 1971 and 1984, the voters had never handed down a uniform verdict.

Even during the 1977 elections there was a sharp divide between the South and the North. So many local issues and factors influence the outcome of elections, strategists assert. In 1999, Kargil helped the NDA but now the people seem unhappy with the Government's performance and the antics of some of the Sangh Parivar outfits, and may be looking to show the coalition the door.

Confident of party's victory in the elections, analysts say that a lot of work went into assessing the electoral prospects of the Congress(I) before the Shimla Sankalap. The BJP's catchment, according to them, is limited to 124 seats whereas the Congress' covers 342 seats across the country, though the party has poor presence in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which account for 201 Lok Sabha seats.

If the Congress(I), according to them, gets half of the seats in the catchment area and its allies in Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh another 80, the Congress coalition should be close to 300 seats.

The Congress leaders also claim that the BJP allies such as the BJD and the TDP are in a bad shape and may be swept away in the Congress tide. Also the BJP is likely to be routed in UP.

Yet, many questions remain unanswered. For instance, the Panchmarhi resolution had underlined the need to avoid any alliance or a coalition on the plea that this would lead to instability at the Centre and also weaken the Congress' efforts to revive units in States where it has suffered serious reverses.

sThe Shimla Sankalap overlooks both the points without giving any plausible explanation as to how these postulates have become irrelevant at this juncture.

Second, its stand on reservations in a private sector and a studied silence on the issue of economic liberalisation which it used to flaunt as its unexceptionable achievement may not go well with its progressive outlook.

The party has reverted to its over three decades old slogans of social justice and socialism. It has not given any explanation as to how it wanted to face the challenges of 21st century by resorting to 20th century slogans. Liberalisation is the in thing. Even China has opened up its economy to multinationals. But ironically here the Congress had consigned this to dustbin. This runs counter to Rajiv Gandhi's vision of 21st century.

(The author is a New Delhi-based political commentator.)

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