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R. Parthasarathy

THE war in Iraq is over. But, as expected, the war of attrition and factionalism has set in. Though some aides of the former Iraqi President, Mr Saddam Hussein, have either surrendered or been captured, there is no reliable information on his whereabouts.

The coalition invasion has caused enormous damage to Iraq. The civilian casualties and the collateral damage have been high. Hundreds of children and women have been rendered destitute, maimed or severely wounded.

Iraq's infrastructure — factories, bridges, roads, water supply system, power stations and so on — have been seriously damaged after the three weeks of intensive bombing.

While a precise estimate of the reconstruction cost is yet to be made, tentative forecasts place it at $100 billion. This may still turn out to be on the lower side, as nothing is known about the rehabilitation cost or medical assistance required. According to media reports, only half of Baghdad's 33 hospitals are working with demand for medical facilities far outstripping available supplies. The looting that started after the conflict soon spread to the medical institutions, and international humanitarian organisations — such as the Red Cross — are unable to cope with the situation. The task of rebuilding Iraq's physical infrastructure and restoring peace and harmony among different ethnic groups such as the Shias, Sunnis and the northern Kurdish tribes is complex and delicate.

The immediate task, however, is to establish a credible government acceptable to the Iraqis. Moreover, it will be some time before normal conditions are restored and civil liberties are firmly established with institutions of governance effectively functioning. It is not yet clear how the modalities of forming a new government will be worked out. How the interim civil administration under the retired US General, Mr Jay Garner, will handle the mess is not clear.

As for the Iraqi administration, the only name doing the rounds is that of the Iraqi National Congress leader, Mr Ahmed Chalabi, who has been in exile in the UK. According to current indications, the interim Government under Mr Garner will have senior advisors from participating countries to run various key ministries.

It is necessary that the interim arrangement be as brief as possible in order to dispel fears that the coalition forces will not stay permanently on the Iraqi soil. It is also clear that the US as leader of the occupation forces will be calling the shots in the new arrangement.

The present situation in Iraq is without parallel in the history of West Asia. Already, there are demonstrations in Iraqi cities against the continued presence of coalition forces. As the UN Secretary-General, Dr Kofi Annan, observed recently, the occupation forces should assume full responsibility for maintaining public order and collecting taxes and government dues.

Therefore, in the absence of civilian authority, the occupation forces should do their best to restore law and order. However, in war zone conditions it may be unrealistic to expect men in fatigues — not trained in civil administration — to play the role of a duly constituted civilian government, that too in a foreign land.

Given these complexities, how does one go about restoring a local civilian government in Iraq? The alternative of placing Iraq under UN control and administration is not acceptable to the US — the military coalition leader, and the sole superpower today. The US sees for itself a major role in the post-conflict reconstruction effort in Iraq not as much a commercial point of view as from the strategic angle to strengthen its influence in West Asia.

One must recognise the fact that post 9/11 there has been extreme instability in the global economic and political environment. The US felt that Iraq may be a problem as far as security is concerned, and there may well be other countries in the region that fall in the category, such as Syria and Sudan.

The US interest in West Asian oil reserves is well known. It wants to grant concessions to American companies to produce oil from southern Iraq.

Coming back to the question of government formation, while the EU led by France and Germany — and to some extent the UK — may want to see a major role for the UN, the US does not seem to be enthusiastic in assigning the world body a political role, or a say in the formation of the new government.

Closely related to this is the question of lifting the UN imposed sanctions on Iraq. The abolition of sanctions has been suggested by the EU and the UK to restore normal flow of trade with Iraq. Reports indicate that the US may go along with the suggestion.

India did not have much stake politically in Iraq. Also it could not have logically opposed the military action given the continued terrorist threat in Jammu and Kashmir. This is reflected in the neutral stand taken by the Centre on Iraq.

But on the economic front, Iraq is an important market for Indian goods and services besides being a source of oil. India's trade with Iraq was in the region of $100 million even during the sanctions. This comprised mostly foodgrains, medical supplies and intermediate industrial goods. Under the evolving administrative set up it is imperative that India strengthen its commercial links with major US corporations, such as Bechtel, to win either sub-contracts or provide a supply source for such inputs as cement, steel, building materials and manufactured goods.

Ironically, India played a significant role in Iraq's construction sector after Gulf War I. India's creditable performance in completing major infrastructure projects in Iraq may be useful, but it should realise that the conditions are different today with many contenders for a slice of the cake. The UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland and Australia, which supported the military action, may stand to gain. For instance, Australia wants to keep intact its half-a-billion dollar worth of wheat market in Iraq.

Much will depend on early political initiatives taken by New Delhi in presenting the commercial case to the US and others. Organisations such as the CII should advise the Centre on the correct strategy that needs to be followed. The time for action is now. This could well be a diplomatic tight ropewalk for the Centre and industry organisations.

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Rebuilding Iraq — India's stakes and opportunities

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