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COMING IMMEDIATELY AFTER a cruel year of extensive drought that forced considerable reduction in agricultural output and consequent slowdown in overall economic growth, the latest forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that the South-West monsoon in 2003 may be below-normal is disheartening, to say the least. But, surely, it is too early to press the panic button.

Two points have to be borne in mind. First, a closer study of the IMD's forecast — based on a newly adopted 8-parameter power regression model, rather than the 16-parameter model followed until last year — shows that a normal monsoon has not been ruled out; it is only that the probability of below-normal precipitation is somewhat high. The accuracy of forecast based on the new model has not been tested. Tied to the actual performance of the South-West monsoon this year will be the performance of the IMD's new forecast model that will be on trial in 2003. For instance, according to the new categorisation, the total anticipated precipitation in the South-West monsoon will be below normal but it would have been normal under the old norms. Second, the forecast is overall; that is, aggregate for the four-month period. The IMD does not forecast temporal and spatial distribution of monsoon rains, so crucial for rainfed agriculture. Even in the years when the IMD had forecast "normal monsoon", some regions (especially western States of Gujarat and Rajasthan) had suffered poor precipitation.

Forecast of a sub-normal rainfall does not automatically translate to widespread drought or unmitigated disaster on the farm front. If the distribution of rains across the country in June-September is satisfactory, the agriculture performance is bound to improve. Having said that, it is no time to be complacent. Unlike in previous years, the IMD has now given the Government and the agricultural sector notice of at least six weeks — the South-West monsoon usually hits Kerala coast on June 1 and progressively covers the entire country by June 30. The lead time should be used by the Centre and the States to get their act together. The apprehensions of tightening seed supplies for kharif season planting are already felt. Inputs such as seeds, fertilisers and agro-chemicals have not only to be organised, but also their delivery systems strengthened. Conservation of water — a critical input for agriculture — and its rational use must be accorded top priority. Time is most opportune to ponder over the slow progress in creation of irrigation potential and to take remedial measures. Large bufferstocks of rice and wheat are sure to cushion the adverse effect if grain output were to suffer.

The policy-makers will have to examine the desirability of continuing with highly subsidised export of fine cereals. To mitigate the hardship arising out of lower rural incomes that would inevitably follow a poor monsoon, the Government must expand and strengthen the various welfare schemes it has been implementing last two years, including food-for-work programmes. Only if the Centre and the States work in tandem can the nature's challenge this year be met with bearable hardship.

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S-W monsoon likely to be below normal

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