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Rasheeda Bhagat

recently in Colombo

WITH both the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam having virtually no option but to stay within the peace negotiation, the talks are on track, says Mr Jehan Perera, Director (Research and Media) of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka. In an interview to Business Line, he was sympathetic to the LTTE retaining the gun, as without military strength, it would have no leverage with the Sri Lankan Government.

Excerpts from the interview:

How do you read the progress of the peace process?

It is going satisfactorily. Recent incidents at sea might suggest to those critical of the process that it is facing difficulty. But I don't think the talks will break down, because both parties are continuing to benefit... much more than they could by going back to war. Hence, both are co-operating and at the macro level the peace process is very much on track and I see it continuing.

So do you think it has an inherent strength that is holding it up despite hiccups and hurdles?

The inherent strength is the realisation of both sides that going back to war is not going to benefit either of them. The Government certainly is not in a position to conduct a war, both because the economy will not be able to sustain a long war and, after the ceasefire, there is no doubt the LTTE has infiltrated into Colombo and other parts of the north and the east and strengthened themselves. The Government will be at a very big disadvantage if the war breaks out again.

Also, the LTTE is in a stronger position vis-a-vis the Government to conduct a war, but that does not mean the Tigers can afford to go back to war, that would achieve absolutely nothing for them. They cannot militarily take over the north and the east.

They will throw away all the gains they have made in terms of international legitimacy, the prospects of economic development and their own strength during the ceasefire period.

In a way, the last seven years have shown both the sides that military option is not a realistic one, and cannot achieve them their goals. That is the inherent strength of the process.

Why then is the LTTE continuing to arm itself?

Because the LTTE realises that even if it cannot win the war, cannot defeat the Sri Lankan state and carve out a separate country, it was purely its military strength that made the Sri Lankan government sit with it as equals, treat it with respect, call off the ban and treat the Tigers as partners. So, they have to maintain their military strength.

They are also concerned that in the event of the Opposition coming to power, and by some chance, a foolhardy Opposition deciding they can go back to war, they will have a military option.

We must also not forget another factor... that theoretically, there is an asymmetry in the ceasefire agreement. This is that the Government, being both a legal and sovereign entity, can continue to import arms. Now in practical terms it cannot, because it does not have the money, but theoretically it can. And, it can also legally recruit.

So the LTTE is at a disadvantage...

Yes, on both counts. So, there is a potential military imbalance. That is another reason why the LTTE is bringing in arms. To even the balance. Though the Government is not strengthening itself militarily at this time.

Coming to the recruitment of child soldiers by the LTTE, there is a huge international concern, but it seems to be continuing. Your comments.

I met some UNHCR officials who say that even the children whom the LTTE release they take back again! This is to keep their military strength up. Of course, this is a human rights abuse. However, as long as the ceasefire continues, these children are not going to die. They are going to be trained... given weapons training and their minds are going to be changed.

Which is bad...

Agreed, but at least they are not going to die till the ceasefire is on. If we can continue with the ceasefire and take the peace process forward, then there is a much better chance of getting these children back into the mainstream.

What about other human rights abuse, giving no space to other political parties in the north and east, gender rights abuse, and the like?

We have had only one year of ceasefire. The peace process is still not reached any conclusion.

I would say that things, even though bad, have improved. People do feel a greater sense of empowerment, however slightly. The Bishops have spoken out, I have heard that the priests are confronting the LTTE; they cannot stop the Tigers, but they are at least confronting them.

So questions are being asked...

Oh yes, the international community is asking questions. And, after some time the LTTE will begin to see that it is actually losing more by being repressive than gaining.

Also, as time goes on, it will become increasingly difficult for the Tigers to control the population in this autocratic way. So I feel that let us at least preserve this space that we have got through the ceasefire and continue the dialogue. The LTTE too has pressures, like the criticism from the UTHR (University Teachers for Human Rights) and the horror described in the group's reports. The international community and the donors are particularly upset by all this. They are all telling the LTTE that it cannot continue thus, and has to change.

What about the parallel regime being run by the LTTE, levying its own taxes and having its own army?

I have met some people from the civil society representing the LTTE, and they say that for the LTTE, federalism is actually confederalism, which means in reality two governments, two prime ministers, two foreign ministers, two armies and the like.

But I do not see a great inconsistency between what the LTTE is doing in the Vanni and other areas under its control and a federal state. In a federal state, like in India, the state has its own courts.

Which come under the Supreme Court...

So, why not this? The LTTE will be quite happy to regularise it.

But an army of its own?

That is going to be a challenge. But in the end I am sympathetic to the LTTE retaining its army for at least a foreseeable future. From the history of Sri Lanka and the way the governments have reversed agreements or not implemented them, the Tamils and the LTTE are justified in wanting to maintain some leverage and the only leverage comes from the gun.

So, I am sympathetic to the idea of their keeping the gun, but as John Hume (Irish Nobel Laureate) said, the important thing is not that they decommission but they say for sure we are not going to use it.

Because with decommissioning, he says from his experience in Northern Ireland, you can never be sure. They can say they are decommissioning, give 100 weapons and buy 100 more.

How positive was he about peace returning, during his visit here?

He was full of hope, and that gives me hope. After all he is a very shrewd and realistic man, he is a politician, who has gone through a very hard life and knows what terrorism is all about, what army retaliation and politics is all about. Having gone to the Vanni and met the LTTE and the political leaders in Colombo, he sounded very optimistic.

He believes that a problem between two communities can be resolved not through violence but only by dialogue.

The public mood is definitely for peace.

Oh yes, and all political classes can see that.

Where and how do you see India's role in the whole thing?

(Smiles) Some Tamils I have met who are nationalist, have a great suspicion of India. Even these incidents at sea, and the one where even the Norwegians said we do not know who did it... it could be a splinter group or a third armed gang. Those close to the LTTE say the Indians have got around the Sri Lankan Navy and are manipulating things.

That sounds ridiculous.

Well, that is their hypothesis.

That means India does not want peace?

That is the LTTE/Tamil nationalist type of thinking. Not that India does not want peace... it does not want LTTE to be the dominant and legitimate factor in the north and east. Perhaps, their fear is that the LTTE would have an influence in Tamil Nadu.

A political analyst told me that India would do business with LTTE without Prabhakaran, that he could remain in the background...

I don't think Prabhakaran will contest elections. I feel that he will be a remote figure... a kind of boss or godfather, in charge of the army.

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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