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Rup Lal Sharma

TO BE or not to be. This is the dilemma the Congress(I) faces over forging an alliance with like-minded parties in the run up to the elections to 10 State Assemblies this year ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2004. The electoral bomb is ticking, but the party seems to be floundering and still looking for answer for its debacle in the Gujarat elections.

The party has become prisoner of its own resolution passed at Panchmarhi in 1998, outlining the road map for attaining power on its own. A serious thinking is on in the party as to whether this goal is achievable at a time when the Hindutva forces are on a resurgence.

Conflicting views on the issue are being aired in the influential circles of the party but no firm line of action has emerged. The pressure from functionaries from some States is reportedly mounting on the Congress high command to sew up some arrangement; else it will be difficult to arrest the Sangh Parivar juggernaut that has got a new impetus after the Gujarat elections.

Since the Hindutva forces have become more strident and are seen to be insensitive to the sensitivities of the minorities, it is necessary to take these forces head on, Congress circles feel.

It is quite strange that the party, which was brimming with confidence only five months back following its successive victories in the State Assembly elections, should finds itself all despondent after the humiliation in the Gujarat, where all its calculation had gone awry.

Another body blow came in the form of a split in the UP Congress Legislature Party. This made the leadership sit up and re-look its strategy to keep the party machinery well oiled for 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

To further confuse its adversaries the BJP has shot off another trial balloon. It has brought into sharp focus again the Ayodhya issue by filing an application in the Supreme Court to vacate the stay on 67 acres of undisputed land near the place where once Babri Masjid stood. The decision to introduce a Bill banning cow slaughter is another well-calculated move to further reinforce and consolidate the Hindutva agenda.

The fast changing situation has driven home the urgency that the Congress leadership must go in for a secular entente to provide a credible counter to Hindutva forces. The response so far has neither been cohesive nor pointed.

It was the fear to being swept away by the rising tide of Hindutva forces that the Congress high command condescended to have meeting with the Samajwadi Party leader, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav. Though it was a preliminary move, it turned out to be reassuring to those helplessly watching the ascendance of the communal forces.

The two parties have been at loggerheads since 1998 when Mr Mulayam Singh refused to back Ms Sonia Gandhi's bid for top executive post. The relation between the two parties reached their nadir when the Congress rejected the Samajwadi Party's request for support to dislodge the BSP's Ms Mayawati. The split in the UP Legislature Party acted as a catalyst to bring a thaw in their relationship. Thus the Sonia-Mulayam meeting.

This meeting is being construed as the beginning of a shift in the Congress stand. Moving on the same conciliatory track, Ms Sonia Gandhi took another significant step: She invited Leaders of the Opposition parties for a dinner meeting at her residence on February 16 to chalk out floor coordination for the Budget session of Parliament. This is seen as a step that may set the stage for a wider secular front to checkmate the communal and fundamentalist forces. Besides Mr Mulayam Singh and Left party leaders, another notable invitee was the NCP leader, Mr Sharad Pawar, who broke away from the parent organisation, opposing Ms Sonia Gandhi's bid for the prime ministerial post. This list of invitees signifies that the Congress is ready to let bygones be bygones and was willing to do work with one-time foes to pursue a broader agenda.

However, this new initiative, which is at a nascent stage, bristles with difficulties. It is difficult for the Congress to offer concessions to regional parties without adversely affecting it own base. The party has a strong presence in the Left-ruled West Bengal and Tripura. Similarly, in UP which sends largest contingent of MPs, the party cannot expect to win back its vote bank by joining hands with Mr Mulayam Singh.

The party has set its sight on the 2004 Parliamentary elections. With an eroded base in the cow belt and the Left-ruled States, the Congress cannot win sufficient number of seats to be in a dictating position at the centre at the time of formation of a government. It will remain vulnerable to pressure from regional leaders who are also nursing ambition to present themselves as prime ministerial material.

It is this worry to keep its base intact that the Congress and the Left were recently seen involved in a slanging match, blaming each other for the advent of the BJP. Ms Sonia Gandhi while addressing a Congress rally at Kolkata had accused the Left parties of compromising its stand on communalism and joining hand with the BJP to oust the Congress from power.

This drew equally vehement retort from the left. However, sensing the potential of the controversy to damage the efforts to work out a joint front against the BJP, both sides lowered their rhetoric and started speaking in a conciliatory tone.

This is only one instance. Any small development can upset the apple cart provided all concerned are equally aware of the stakes and respected one another's sensitivities. The coming Assembly elections in ten States will be the litmus test.

(The author is a Delhi-based political journalist.)

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