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D. Murali

CHENNAI, Oct. 8

WITH only hours to go before the announcement of the 2002 Nobel Prize for Economics, the Rapid Response Unit of the World Bank is keen on doing a quick poll on its Web site.

It has given a list of seven economists who "stand a good chance of coming out on top". They are Arnold Harberger of the University of California, Robert Shiller of Yale, Anne Krueger of Stanford and the IMF, Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, and Michael Jensen, Oliver Hart and Janos Kornai of Harvard.

Arnold C. Harberger's research is on problems of economic policy in developing countries, analysis of efficiency and incidence effects of taxation, and cost-benefit analysis of investment projects. Robert Shiller has done work in the field of bourses, as the title of some of his papers would suggest: such as "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook", "Macro Markets and Financial Security", "Stock Prices, Expected Future Dividends, Volatility, Investor Behaviour" and so on. Anne O. Krueger is the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. She has published extensively on policy reform in developing countries, the role of multilateral institutions in the international economy, and the political economy of trade policy.

Richard H. Thaler is a professor of behavioural science and economics and some of his recent papers are "Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioural Economics to Increase Employee Saving", "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-Outs", and "How Much is Investor Autonomy Worth?" Michael C. Jensen's research is aimed at obtaining a clearer understanding of how the `organisational rules of the game' affect a manager's ability to accomplish his or her goals and how the rules can be structured to resolve problems and increase productivity.

Oliver Hart's research topics are theory of the firm and organisations, financial structure of firms, and contract theory.

While it may disappoint many that the `shortlist' seems to be so geographically concentrated, the Nobel committee is to announce what is hidden in the envelope on Wednesday morning. The odds are that it could be somebody else.

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