The Hindu Business Line : CII revises up industrial growth estimate to 4.5%

The upward revision, notwithstanding the bad news on the monsoon front, comes in view of an optimism about an industrial recovery on the back of global recovery in sectors such as steel and chemicals.

A CII study on the `State of the Economy' up to July 2002 has noted that an upswing in domestic demand is apparent in the housing and automobile sectors as well as in consumer products.

With the dollar weakening against major currencies such as the euro and yen, the CII study has said that the prospects for Indian exports are looking brighter.

But the chamber has revised down its forecast for agricultural growth to 1.5 per cent. CII's GDP growth estimate has been revised to five per cent for 2002-03, down from 5.2 per cent estimated earlier.

Stating that the situation on the monsoon front until the third week of July has been much worse than in the previous five years, the CII study has pointed out that the number of sub-divisions with scanty or deficient rainfall is 20 out of total of 36.

"Rainfall has been deficient across large parts of the country and has affected key agricultural states in Central and North India such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

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