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Ranabir Ray Choudhury

AT the World Economic Forum meetings in New York, the focus of all attention appears to be the gradual turnaround in the economic fortunes of the US, the consensus being that the recession is on its way out and that the beneficial effects of this on the world economy will begin to be felt by the end of calendar 2002. This is, perhaps, as it should be because the present recession, which set in in the US early in the last calendar year, received a boost in the wrong direction from the September 11 events, resulting in the slowdown impact being magnified many times over.

In fact, according to recent reports, the economic damage done to the US economy by, specifically, the September terrorist attacks probably totals more than $600 billion, which means that this is the rough magnitude of the negative impact of the attacks on an already recession-bound US economy with the world following not far behind.

The focus on international economic growth at the annual WEF conference is, therefore, eminently understandable. However, it is also a matter of some curiosity, even irony, that the heightened attention on economic growth at the New York meetings also had a lot to do with the pervasive poverty that is gripping large parts of the world, specifically in the sense that the significant push to the global recessionary conditions imparted by the September 11 attacks had their roots in terrorism spawned by poverty and the perceived deep sense of injustice that is a direct offshoot of this state of existence and mind.

In fact, there is nothing new in this observation because, at the level of pure logical formalism, "a state of poverty" cannot be experienced if it cannot be compared with "a state of growth". In other words, poverty exists only where there is growth very generally speaking, and vice versa, which underscores heavily the deep-rooted links between the two states of economic reality. Given this bond, it was, therefore, extremely appropriate for the US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, to draw attention to poverty and its consequences at the WEF conference. Among other things, Mr Powell is reported to have told the participants that the US and its allies had to "go after poverty, we have to go after despair, we have to go after hopelessness" as part of the war against terrorism. He is reported to have added: "We have to show people who might move in the direction of terrorism that there is a better way...we have to rededicate ourselves to freedom and democracy".

To most seasoned observers of international affairs since the end of the Second World War, this is the crux of the problem facing the planet a small part of which is hurtling towards even higher standards of living at a time when the vast majority of mankind is lagging way behind. There is no doubt that this is a "contradiction" in the Hegelian sense, the inference being that unless the strength of this "contradiction" is checked, it could lead to an explosive situation among the haves and have-nots of the world. How does one go about diluting the "contradiction" which, seen from one standpoint, could systemically endanger the peace of the world at a future date?

This is where Mr Powell's appeal comes in, and it should be clear from the above analysis that the response to it could be crucial for the future of human civilisation. Marx envisaged an unbridgeable divide among the workers and the "owners of the means of production", namely, capitalists, which would in course of time lead to the era of Pure Communism. For reasons well-known, this prognosis has not worked out in the way predicted. But the growing "contradiction" between the rich and the poor generally — within countries and among countries — is very much there and, in recent times, has shown signs of beginning to work itself out in such a way which could seriously affect the economic and political stability of the world as a whole.

Clearly, the only way to stem this tide is to help the world's poor effectively, which would have the impact of reducing somewhat the gap between the affluent and the poor. Some might argue that since the "contradiction" is based as much on cultural and religious factors as on economic issues, this sort of alleviation of the problem may not yield the desired result. This may be true, but the fact remains that the target of the terrorists in the September 11 attack was the twin towers of the World Trade Centre (the symbol of America's economic predominance), thereby suggesting that it is the economic problem that is at the heart of the "confrontation" instead of non-economic issues.

The problem is: Is assistance on a scale which will reduce the economic gap between nations practicable in the given circumstances, or is Mr Powell (like others before him) crying himself hoarse in the wilderness because rich-country politicians are still not ready to embark on a programme as ambitious as this? Indeed, it may be asked whether such a mammoth programme is at all required, or whether the same impact can be made by smaller, sectorally-oriented, well-targeted schemes? This is an issue which aid-specialists (hailing from both developed and underdeveloped countries) should be able to answer, but the fact remains that the effort will have to be a huge one if the phenomenon of poverty is to be adequately weakened so much so that it can play a useful role in the war against terrorism.

The US Secretary of State is reported to have said that the Bush Administration had "the patience and the perseverance" to "see this campaign through". One hopes that Mr Powell is right, but past experience suggests that the world's rich has not been overly enthusiastic in extending meaningful and long-term assistance to the poor, one result of which has been the gradual sharpening of the "contradiction" referred to above.

Indeed, after September 11, 2001, the need to embark on a serious programme to tackle "poverty, despair and hopelessness" in the world has become critically urgent. In a sense, the destruction of the World Trade Centre has shown the way to thousands of fanatical terrorists, and it is more than likely that the effort will now to be replicate the event in order to gain a place in their own Hall of Fame, in the process putting further roadblocks in the way of the planet's overall economic growth and development.

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