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Friday, Jan 25, 2002

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Mild bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEARS exerted further pressure on Thursday's trading. But they could not gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Irrespective of bull or bear domination on Friday, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open, the January contract gained around 11 points. Later on, the bears came back and wiped out the early gains made by the bulls. January contract closed around Wednesday's close.

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Initial bull move terminated the downtrend in the January contract. The short trade exited with a loss of around 9 points. Fresh re-entry level is placed very close to its current level. Bear pressure on Friday has the potential to re-instate the downtrend in the January contract. Bullish trigger level remains around the same level.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable counters remained intact. Satyam Computer continues to remain as the top traded counter followed by Infosys and ACC in the stock futures segment.

Further bear domination on Friday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend in Tata Engg. On the other hand, the downtrend in Infosys and L&T is likely to be under threat.

For Friday, a lone opportunity is likely to exist in either side of trading. It is likely to exist in Reliance Industries on the long side and Tata Engg on the short side. Between the two, buying in Reliance Industries is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. This counter is presently in the sideways trend. Its buy level is placed closer to its last traded price. Bull domination on Friday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable counters in the cash segment. The ranking of the list underwent a few changes. Infosys moved to the fourth position and Zee Tele to the tenth position.

The uptrend in HCL Tech is likely to be under threat from the bears. On the other hand, the downtrend in Zee Tele is likely to be under threat. So, traders holding positions in the above two counters will have to closely watch their price movements.

Traders are left with a lone opportunity for Friday's trading. This is likely to exist on the short side of Wipro. The counter is in the sideways mode. Its bearish trigger level is placed closer to its last traded price. Bear move on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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