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M.R. Subramani

CHENNAI, Jan. 21

EL Nino, the unusual weather pattern that delayed monsoon in 1997-98 in India and caused severe floods in Bangladesh, is threatening to stage a comeback. The El Nino is caused by unusual rise in the ocean temperatures of the Pacific Ocean along the South America coast.

But meteorologists aren't ready to jump to any conclusion. While stating that El Nino conditions have begun to develop, they prefer not to press the panic button. "It is a bit early to make any predictions. It should take six to eight weeks before a clear pattern emerges. Maybe, we will be not certain till April," they say.

The UN-sponsored Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) is keeping a tab on the developments. When contacted, FAO officials told Business Line that "the evolution of a warm episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean continued during December 2001."

In particular, they referred to the data put out by the Queensland Department of Primary Industries (QDPI), Australia. In its latest bulletin, the department, which puts out a weekly seasonal weekly climate information, said: "most oceanic and atmospheric models continue to reflect El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in the short term. However, there are indications of a slow evolution towards a warm (El Nino-like) episode. Since mid-2001, sea surface temperatures (SST) have been slowly warming in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. During the same period, sub-surface temperatures have also warmed in the same region. This pattern has previously been observed prior to the onset of past warm or El Nino episodes." It also quoted the US Climate Prediction Centre recording significant westerly wind bursts over the western Pacific. "Strong westerly wind bursts in that region have in the past assisted in the development of the necessary pre-conditions required for an El Nino event," QDPI said.

"It will be interesting to see if the warming in the central Pacific reaches El Nino proportions in autumn 2002 and what impact, if any, the recently-recorded westerly wind bursts will have," the department said.

The data from QDPI and Climate Predication Centre are viewed more reliable by agencies such as FAO.

The 1997-98 El Nino was stated to have had the strongest effect in the last 100 years. While affecting the monsoon activity in the sub-continent, it resulted in drought and bush fires in Australia besides affecting South China. In South India, plantation crops such as tea and coffee were hit. But foodgrains, mainly rice, benefited as South-East Asian countries, mainly Indonesia, bought large quantities of Indian rice. As a result, during 1998-99, rice exports touched a record 43.95 lakh tonnes.

One of the countries that were hit badly then was Indonesia, where forest fires broke out. The fires choked the entire South-East Asia scanning from Malaysia to Singapore.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US, in its bulletin on January 9, said: "by early January, equatorial SST anomalies increased to +1 degrees C... it seems most likely that warm episode conditions will develop in the tropical Pacific during the next 3-6 months."

Despite all this, the meteorologists are unsure of the intensity. Will 1997-98 be revisited? It's anyone's guess.

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