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Exports overshoot target; notch 20 pc growth

Our Bureau

NEW DELHI, May 1

THE country's exports in the fiscal year 2000-01 (April to March) logged a 20 per cent growth in dollar terms, overshooting the target of 18 per cent at $44.1 billion, against $36.8 billion in the previous fiscal.

Provisional foreign trade data compiled by the Directorate-General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) reveal that India's export during 2000-01 are valued at $44,103.77 million, 19.83 per cent higher than the level of $36,805.35 million d uring April-March 1999-2000.

The fourth year export performance of the Ninth Plan has increased from a level of $35 billion at the inaugural year to $44 billion at the penultimate year. An official release said the trade data cover only merchandise exports and do not include softwar e and other services export receipts.

On the other hand, the country's imports during the fiscal year 2000-01 are valued at $49,843 million, representing a growth of 0.27 per cent over the level of imports valued at $49,709.83 million.

The trade deficit for 2000-01 is estimated at $5,739.23 million which is lower than the deficit of $12,904.48 million during April-March 1999-2000.

The last year's trade deficit is the lowest for the first four years of the Ninth Plan. This level of low trade deficit was made possible despite the firm global oil prices and the country's continued dependence on imported oil not wilting with imported oil costing $6 billion more than last year.

While the Government claims that the good export performance has led to the lower trade deficit, independent economists do not share this view. They contend that the overall slowdown in the growth rate of imports in general and negative growth in non-oil imports reflect the general slowdown of the economy.

The Chief Economist, NCAER, Mr Shashanka Bhide, told Business Line here that the slowdown in overall import growth reflects that the investment expenditure has not picked up during the last fiscal as widely apprehended.

He said there was also decline in commodity prices the world over, which further got reflected in the import price of products. The fact that non-oil imports registered a negative growth showed that capital goods import too suffered reflecting on the ove rall domestic industrial production, he remarked.

Even as the experts do not feel buoyed up by the foreign trade trend of the last fiscal, the Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Mr Murasoli Maran, has lauded the exporting community, attributing the achievement of a near 20 per cent growth to their outstanding performance and enterprise.

He, however, cautioned them against any complacency and promised ``the fullest support'' to sustain and step up the export growth so as to achieve the vision of attaining at least one per cent share of the global trade in the shortest possible time.

Officials in the Commerce Ministry, citing quick estimates made by the DGCI&S, maintain that the main sectors that have performed well in 2000-01 include marine products, leather and leather products, basic chemicals, engineering goods, electronic goods, manmade yarn fabrics and madeups and readymade garments.

They say the news of the slowdown of the US economy notwithstanding, the exports during March 2001, the final month of the fiscal 2000-01, was the highest in any month of the year at $4277.32 million. It gives rise to optimism that export sector has beco me resilient enough to cushion itself against external shocks.

An analysis of import trends show that oil imports during Apr-Mar 2000-01 are valued at $15653.29 million, which is 62.29 per cent higher than oil imports valued at $9645.42 million in the corresponding period last year.

More worryingly, non-oil imports during the period under review are estimated at $34,189.71 million, 14.66 per cent lower than the level of such imports valued at $40,064.41 million in April-March 1999-2000.