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Kazakhhstan: Trying to find its feet

Harihar Swarup

THE 61st birthday of the Kazakhh President, Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev, was celebrated on July 6 and marking the occasion, he announced the opening of the country's biggest oil field -- Kashagan -- and indicated that his country's petroleum production is o n the threshhold of bypassing Saudi Arabia's.

Judging by the phenomenal stride erstwhile Soviet Union's biggest state has made in the petroleum sector it may, in the near future, become an oil superpower. The fortune of the country, economically dependent on Russia, changed almost in a year's time f ollowing discovery of huge petroleum fields in the northern Caspian Sea, off the coast of Kazakhstan. Estimates of oil deposits run as high as fifty billion barrels.

Mr. Nursultan has been able to build an economy independent of Russia, mostly by expanding the oil sector. Kazakhhstan has succeeded to some extent in diversifying its oil export routes and a major breakthrough was reached in June when one of its largest oil refineries announced successful completion of a test transportation of 2,440 tonnes of crude oil to China by rail. Initially, there was problem in oil shipment because of gauge difference between Kazakh and Chinese railways. The gauge of the Chinese railway system is wider than that of Khazakh. Engineers were, apparently, able to sort out the problem by unscrewing the round oil tanks and then using heavy cranes to lift them and fit them on wheels of Chinese wagons which run on wider gauge. Diplomat s from Almaty, including the Indian envoy, were recently taken to Urumgi, bordering China's Xinjian province, to witness the gigantic transit operation. Kazakhhstan proposes to transport its oil to Japan and Korea through the Chinese rail route.

Kazakhhstan and China are now seriously considering the possibility of jointly laying an oil pipeline from western Kazakhhstan to China. The project is estimated to cost little over $3 billions. The proposed pipeline will be about 3,000-km-long and its a nnual handling capacity is likely to be a minimum of 20 million tonnes. Kazakhhs are quite serious about the project and the Prime Minister, Mr. K. Tokev, has himself set up a working group for implementation of the project for laying the oil pipeline.

While China has been making huge investments in Kazakhhistan, India is yet to realise the importance of the Central Asian Republic's ``oil wealth'', say diplomats in Almaty.

Kazakhhstan has been for quite sometime trying to diversify its oil export avenues, seeking routes through north to Russia, west to Turkey, south to Iran and east to China. Till recently, a bulk of its oil exports passage was to the north, into the Russi an pipeline network.

Another country with a stake in Caspian Sea oil is Uzbekistan. It has over eight million tonnes of oil and 57 billion cubic meters of gas. The Deputy Chairman of Uzbekneftegas Mr. Adidov, in an interview to this correspondent in Tashkent, said Uzbekistan 's oil sources would last for 30 years and natural gas reserves 35-40 years. Uzbekistan desperately needs assistance from friendly countries to help in its oil exploration projects and also export routes. It has offered lucrative terms to foreign compani es, including India, such as exclusive rights for prospecting and exploratory work, right of ownership and free export of extracted oil and gas, and exemption from all kinds of taxation and Custom duties. A significant term provides guarantee for a refun d of actual expenses if the deposits of industrial value are let for further development of the National Holding company-Uzbekneftegaz. The response has not been up to expectation.

Mr. Adidov has reasons to be sore with India. Mr. V. Ramamurthy, when he was Petroleum Minister, visited Tashkent and held out certain assurances about extending India's help in exploration of oil. In the words of the Deputy Chairman of Uzbekneftegas: `` We discussed with him the prospects of India's help in oil exploration. Mr. Ramamurthy made certain promises but later there was no response from him. I also sent him letters regarding the talks he had with us and the concessions offered but the minister did not reply...'' There is tremendous goodwill for India in both Uzbekistan and Kazakhhstan.

The problem of India purchasing Uzbek oil and gas is the transportation cost. It is impossible to lay a pipeline through Afghanistan and Pakistan and transshipment of the two products by sea route will evidently be too costly. But Mr. Adidov said that Ir an's Bandarabbas port could be considered as a transit point. As for the cost, he said that ``A decision should not be taken in hurry without undertaking a feasibility study by India and, obviously this includes the type of products India require, the qu antity and other related matters.''

Other two major problems of Central Asian Republics are illegal migration from India and Pakistan and narcotics smuggling from Afghanistan and on to Russia, Europe, the UK and, finally, the US. Harrowing tales are told of Indians and Pakistanis seeking j obs in Germany, the UK and the US falling into the traps of organisations doing brisk business in human smuggling in Delhi, Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The modus operandi is simple: Touts promise jobs in these countries, and get them valid visa to any of t he Central Asian Republics. But the troubles start once they cross the borders of their respective countries.

In Bishkek, capital of Khrgyzstan, Indian job-seekers are either languishing in jail or have been deported back. On the first leg of their journey, migrants holding valid passports with visa stamp face no problem but within days, their passports are coll ected on the pretext of getting visas to Russia for onward journey to Europe and the UK. The valid passports are substituted by fake ones and forged visas and migrants are usually put in train to Moscow. Many are apprehended on the Russian borders, inter rogated, imprisoned and deported; few lucky ones cross over to Europe and fewer still their ultimate destinations.

Officials of the Indian mission confirmed that during transit, the migrants are treated worse than animals; locked in a small room for days and given only boiled rice and potato to eat till their forged passports are prepared. Meanwhile, they are asked t o get more money. Those unable to meet the demand are usually handed over to the local police and ultimately land in the Indian Mission to be deported back, usually on government account.

According to sources, 30 migrants were, some time back, hidden behind huge gunny bags containing vegetables in a goods train bound for Moscow. On the Russian borders, the security guards, while inspecting the wagons, saw a bag moving; he virtually shriek ed and called other guards. When bags were removed, the 30 persons were found huddled together. Many migrants die in such misadventures.

A Kazakhh Interior Ministry spokesman said that only last week 44 Pakistanis were arrested for entering Kazakhhstan without passport and visas. They had travelled to Russia via Kazakhhstan, where they said, they had hoped to find work. They were sent bac k to Kazakhhstan. According to official reports, the illegal migration, from South Asia has been growing at a fast rate. Lately, Central Asian states such as Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhhstan have become main transit routes for illegal migration, and the migran ts are mainly Pakistanis, Indians, Sri Lankans, Afghans and other Asians. The racket is operated through well-organised mafia groups with links from India to Europe.

Central Asia is also fast becoming the main corridor for the narco-trafficking in Eurasian world. The menace is closely associated with fundamentalism and terrorism that emanate from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajkistan. Official figures put the drug rela ted money laundering originating from the Golden Triangle to about $70 billions.

(The author, a former PTI Bureau Chief, visited Kazakhhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan recently.)